Abstract: Based on reservoir engineering theory and basic oil field production decline pattern, this study presents a multi-factor stochastic model that takes all influential factors into account of development indexes. Using this model can overcome such pitfalls as singular calculation parameters and insensible to indexes alteration in previous prediction. It's proved that the model has been well applied into practice and can really reflect the status of oil field development.

Key words: oil field development, development index, decline, model