Abstract: With the oilfield entering into super?high water cut stage and the increasing of well pattern density, the effect of shut?in well on production rate is increasing obviously, and the influencing factors become very complex. In order to predict the shut?in well on production rate accurately, this paper developed the prediction model for it by choosing the influencing factors based on synthetic dynamic analysis, using multiple correlation analysis to screen the variables and applying the group method of data handling (GMDH). The result shows that well pattern density, flow coefficient, fluid productivity intensity and water cut are the major influencing factors. The verification from actual data indicates that the model is of high predictive precision and can satisfy the field requirements. Also, it provides theoretical basis for predicting the effect of shut?in well on production rate in annual planning arrangement