Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water -Cut of Oilfield

Xinjiang Petroleum Geology ›› 2006, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 62-63.

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Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water -Cut of Oilfield

LI Zu-you¹, ZHU Yi-dong¹, TANG Jian², YANG Bai-shu³, RONG Ning⁴

1. Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
2. Jilin Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Songyuan, Jilin 131000, China;
3. Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd., PetroChina, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163000, China;
4. Tarim Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Korla, Xinjiang 841000, China

Received:2005-04-11 Revised:2005-04-11 Published:2020-10-19

Abstract

Abstract: The graph of growth curve in its growth process is normally characterized by an oblate shape like "S". A lot of field data got from oil exploration, exploitation and production also appear such a S-shape varied tendency. This paper presents the available six types of S-shape, analyzes their growth rate-varied patterns and deduces the generalized S-shape growth models and curves, followed by developing the oilfield water-cut forecast model the represents these six S-shape growth curves and making solutions with trial and error method. Case study indicates that the generalized S-shape growth model proposed in this paper can be applied to forecasting oilfield water-cut, being as a guide for development of water flood oilfields.

Key words: growth curve, generalization, forecast, water cut

CLC Number:

TE331

LI Zu-you, ZHU Yi-dong, TANG Jian, YANG Bai-shu, RONG Ning. Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water -Cut of Oilfield[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2006, 27(1): 62-63.

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Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water -Cut of Oilfield

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