Abstract: The prediction of oil-gas operation cost is the first step of cost budget and control.This prediction is normally made by using level method and correlation analysis method, but the results from them have some difference with real situation, which is unfavorable for the cost management of modern enterprises.This paper analyzes the grey system model and application realm, it is preliminarily considered that affecting factor, composing environment and system for oil-gas operation cost accord very much with grey system model and belong to grey system matter.In addition, this paper introduces the single serial one-order linear performance model of grey theory and the calculation method of model precision verification and presents the yearly operation cost prediction by taking composite unit operation cost of Karamay oilfield as an example.The result shows that it basically accords with changing regularity of the oil-gas operation cost of Karamay oilfield.

Key words: Karamay oilfield, grey system, operation cost, prediction