A Modified Multi-Cycle Model for Predicting Productions of Oil and Gas Fields

doi:10.7657/XJPG20200407

Abstract

Abstract:

Life-cycle models are the main methods for production prediction in oil and gas fields, and the number of life (production) cycles in these models has significant influences on forecast results. Previous studies usually determine the number of production cycles based on the trend of production curve or important events occurring at a certain time, which tends to result in an inaccurate forecast result. The generalized Weng’s model is chosen as a base model since it is one of the most widely-used life-cycle models, a modified multi-cycle generalized Weng’s model is then established to quantitatively determine the number of cycles in oil and gas fields’ production prediction, aiming at improving the prediction performance of the model. The modified model is used to predict the production of Daqing oilfield and the results show that the modified model can present a better fit than a single-cycle model and conventional multi-cycle models. Meanwhile, the modified model can give similar forecast results to those models with more production cycles, avoiding the addition of forecast time, which has proved the validity of the modified model and provided a new idea for production prediction in oil and gas fields.

Key words: oil and gas field, production prediction, single-cycle model, multi-cycle model, generalized Weng’s model, Daqing oilfield

CLC Number:

WANG Jianliang, LIU Rui, FENG Lianyong, YU Xiangchun. A Modified Multi-Cycle Model for Predicting Productions of Oil and Gas Fields[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2020, 41(4): 430-434.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 3.

Table 1

Fig. 4.

Table 2

Comparison of actual and fitted oil production from 1959 to 2018 in Daqing oilfield 3个循环"

年份	实际年产量/10⁴ t	单循环预测年产量/10⁴ t	2个循环叠加预测年产量/10⁴ t	3个循环叠加预测年产量/10⁴ t	年份	实际年产量/10⁴ t	单循环预测年产量/10⁴ t	2个循环叠加预测年产量/10⁴ t	3个循环叠加预测年产量/10⁴ t
1959	0.11	0.24	1.08	0.12	1990	5 562.24	5 048.37	5 749.66	5 540.09
1960	97.07	2.99	11.20	2.88	1991	5 562.33	5 122.89	5 688.49	5 579.79
1961	274.33	12.52	41.86	17.02	1992	5 565.83	5 180.48	5 609.66	5 618.64
1962	355.49	33.54	103.06	56.46	1993	5 590.19	5 221.61	5 514.99	5 650.99
1963	439.34	70.43	201.78	136.42	1994	5 600.52	5 246.85	5 406.29	5 670.90
1964	625.06	126.75	341.79	269.72	1995	5 600.69	5 256.85	5 285.40	5 672.70
1965	834.24	205.06	523.88	464.37	1996	5 600.86	5 252.33	5 154.18	5 651.53
1966	1 060.90	306.86	746.34	722.48	1997	5 600.92	5 234.10	5 014.64	5 603.83
1967	1 031.99	432.67	1 005.48	1 040.36	1998	5 570.38	5 202.97	4 869.01	5 527.79
1968	1 150.96	582.07	1 296.18	1 409.43	1999	5 450.19	5 159.83	4 719.89	5 423.63
1969	1 580.99	753.87	1 612.39	1 817.43	2000	5 300.09	5 105.54	4 570.45	5 293.78
1970	2 118.37	946.21	1 947.55	2 249.95	2001	5 150.16	5 041.01	4 424.54	5 142.86
1971	2 169.13	1 156.76	2 294.92	2 691.69	2002	5 013.10	4 967.12	4 286.71	4 977.46
1972	3 051.25	1 382.78	2 647.90	3 127.76	2003	4 840.03	4 884.77	4 162.05	4 805.67
1973	3 365.07	1 621.32	3 000.23	3 544.53	2004	4 640.03	4 794.82	4 055.80	4 636.33
1974	4 105.65	1 869.25	3 346.12	3 930.45	2005	4 495.10	4698.12	3 972.65	4 478.19
1975	4 625.97	2 123.45	3 680.43	4 276.46	2006	4 338.10	4 595.50	3 915.86	4 338.80
1976	5 030.31	2 380.82	3 998.66	4 576.30	2007	4 162.61	4 487.75	3 886.40	4 223.53
1977	5 031.40	2 638.37	4 297.01	4 826.65	2008	4 020.01	4 375.64	3 882.16	4 134.73
1978	5 037.53	2 893.28	4 572.40	5 026.99	2009	4 000.03	4 259.87	3 897.62	4 071.22
1979	5 075.30	3 142.94	4 822.42	5 179.53	2010	4 000.03	4 141.15	3 924.03	4 028.23
1980	5 150.11	3 384.97	5 045.30	5 288.74	2011	4 000.04	4 020.10	3 950.21	3 997.87
1981	5 175.27	3 617.25	5 239.89	5 361.00	2012	4 000.00	3 897.35	3 963.84	3 969.97
1982	5 194.15	3 837.91	5 405.57	5 403.96	2013	4 000.00	3 773.45	3 953.07	3 933.37
1983	5 235.46	4 045.37	5 542.21	5 425.94	2014	4 000.00	3 648.92	3 908.09	3 877.26
1984	5 356.41	4 238.32	5 650.12	5 435.23	2015	3 838.60	3 524.26	3 822.47	3 792.48
1985	5 528.88	4 415.68	5 729.95	5 439.41	2016	3 656.00	3 399.89	3 693.88	3 672.61
1986	5 555.24	4 576.66	5 782.67	5 444.82	2017	3 400.00	3 276.23	3 524.24	3 514.64
1987	5 555.32	4 720.68	5 809.51	5 456.08	2018	3 204.40	3 153.63	3 319.21	3 319.11
1988	5 570.29	4 847.37	5 811.89	5 475.74	2019	3 090.00	3 032.44	3 087.22	3 089.96
1989	5 555.56	4 956.59	5 791.37	5 504.28

Table 2

Fig. 5.

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循环个数/个	均值平方根R	无量纲的均值平方根RD	模型的F 检验值Fm	标准的F 检验值Fs	是否通过
1	1 024.14	0.19
2	396.94	0.07	6.30	1.90	Fm >Fs, 引入第2个循环
3	172.05	0.03	5.02	1.94	Fm >Fs,引入第3个循环
4	121.36	0.02	1.89	1.98	Fm<Fs,拒绝引入第4个循环
5	103.62	0.02	1.28	2.02

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