Abstract: The grey degree of relevance analysis between main reservoir geologic parameters such as crude viscosity, net pay thickness, porosity, permeability, oil saturation, reservoir depth and steam injection volume and productivities from twenty one blocks in northwestern margin of Xinjiang oilfield shows a good relationship between them by the fact that a closed relationship between these parameters and conductivity or deliverability. The regression analysis also shows that complex nonlinear relationships occur between them. With Cobd-Douglas equation, this paper presents the successful match of it and develops the deliverability equation based on reservoir geologic parameter for direct prediction of heavy oil productivity. Moreover, three heavy oil blocks in Karamay oil field are forecasted using this equation and the results indicate that this method is feasible.

Key words: heavy oil reservoir, parameter, productivity prediction, equation