Abstract: In recent years, China’s proven oil reserves show the varied characteristics which can be summarized as following: 1) growth with steadiness and high range, but there exist distinct differences; 2) reduction of both pool size and reserves abundance in the newly discovered oilfields, and 3) extremely slow growth of remained recoverable reserves. According to these characteristics, Logistic model, experience trend method and grey system model are selected, integrated with domestic various prediction results, comprehensive analysis of growth trend of proven oil reserves is made for the short-term and medium-term in China. It is estimated that new incremental proven reserves will reach 3.5~3.8 billion tons during the period from 2001 to 2005; 3.2~3.5 billion tons during the period from 2006 to 2010, showing a good exploration potential.

Key words: China, oil, proven reserves, prediction, method, trend