›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 1-1.doi: 10.7657/XJPG20170217

• 论文 •    

修正的Pareto分布模型在油气资源评价中应用的新方法——兼评3种Pareto分布模型的不正确性

陈元千   

  1. (中国石油 勘探开发研究院,北京 100083)
  • 出版日期:2019-01-01 发布日期:1905-07-14

New Methods of Modified Pareto Distribution Model Applied in Petroleum Resources EvaluationConcurrent Review of 3 Incorrect Pareto Distribution Models

CHEN Yuanqian   

  1. (Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China)
  • Online:2019-01-01 Published:1905-07-14

摘要: 帕雷托(Pareto)于1897年提出用一个负指数幂函数关系式,描述含油气盆地或区带内油气田储量规模的分布,被称为Pareto分布模型或Pareto定律。然而,原Pareto分布模型在理论上存在缺陷,即当x=0时,N(0)→∞。此外,在双对数坐标上,储量规模排序与编号之间往往不成直线关系,无法确定Pareto分布模型常数。因而,影响到原Pareto分布模型在油气资源评价中的有效应用。陈元千于2008年对原Pareto分布模型提出了修正,克服了理论上的缺陷,建立了有效的预测方法。在修正的Pareto分布模型的基础上,经进一步研究,得到了计算Pareto分布密度、累积分布和逆累积分布,以及含油气盆地总资源量和三级资源量的计算方法。同时,对金之钧、Lee和Chen-Richard 的3种Pareto分布的不正确性进行了评论。通过实例应用表明,新方法是实用有效的。

Abstract: Pareto presented a negative exponent power function in 1897 to describe the distributions of reserves scale of oil and gas fields in petroliferous regions or basins, which is called Pareto distribution model or Pareto law. However, the original Pareto distribution model has some flaws in theory—N(0) approaches to infinite when x equals to zero. Furthermore, the constants in the distribution model can’t be determined because there is usually a nonlinear relationship between reserves scale and its serial number on double-logarithm coordinate. Therefore, Pareto distribution model can’t be applied effectively in oil and gas resources evaluation. Chen Yuanqian presented a modification of the original Pareto distribution model in 2008 to overcome the theoretical flaws and established effective estimation methods. Then the methods to calculate Pareto distribution density, cumulative distribution and adverse cumulative distribution, total resources and 3-level resources are obtained based on the modified Pareto distribution model. At the same time, this paper reviews the 3 incorrect Pareto distributions presented by Jin Zhijun, Lee and Chen-Richard, respectively. The actual application indicates that the new methods are practical and effective

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