新疆石油地质

›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 1-1.

• 论文 •    

基于Gompertz的灰色模型预测油田产量

汤国平1，姜汉桥1，丁帅伟1，李俊键1，甘云雁2   

  1. (1.中国石油大学 石油工程教育部重点实验室,北京 102249;2. 中国海油 研究总院,北京 100027)
  • 出版日期:2019-01-01 发布日期:1905-07-12

Application of GompertzBased Grey Model to Oilfield Production Forecast

TANG Guoping1, JIANG Hanqiao1, DING Shuaiwei1, LI Junjian1, GAN Yunyan2   

  1. (1.MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 2.Research Center of CNOOC,Beijing 100027, China)
  • Online:2019-01-01 Published:1905-07-12

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摘要： 随着我国合作开发的海外油田项目日益增多，从目前和长远来说，快速预测油田产量，对于项目的正确评估是一项重要任务。基于Gompertz模型可以很好表征和描述“S”型曲线的特点，以及灰色模型建模适用数据点较少的优点，提出一种基于Gompertz的灰色模型用以预测油田累计产量的新方法。经实例验算，该模型回归拟合历史数据具有强的抗干扰能力，拟合精度高；利用基于Gompertz的灰色模型预测油气田产量具有一定的准确性和可靠性。

Abstract: With the increasing of overseas oilfield cooperation projects, proper evaluation of a significant project needs quick forecasting the oil production from the current and the long term. Based on Gompertz model that can be used for fine characterization and description of S?type curves, and its grey model that requires fewer data points, this paper presents a new approach for prediction of a field cumulative oil production by Gompertz?based grey model. The case study shows that this model has strong anti?interference capacity and high accuracy in regression and history matching of production data, by which the production forecast of an oil?gas field will be of certain accuracy and reliability

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