Xinjiang Petroleum Geology ›› 2003, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 55-58+2.

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Growth Curves Expressed by Trigonometric Function to Predict Indexes of Oilfield Development

YU Qi-tai   

  • Received:2002-03-04 Online:2003-02-01 Published:2020-11-26
  • About author:YU Qi-tai (1940-), Male, Professor of Engineering, Reservoir Engineering, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, CNPC, Beijing 100083, China

Abstract: Six growth curves used for prediction of oilfield development indexes expressed with trigonometric function are proposed, thusperfecting and abounding in the existed growth curve methods further. The cumulative production (Np) VS time (t), production (Qt) vs t, Qt vs Np, calculation formulae of the ratio of Np to maximum recoverable reserves (NRmax) corresponding to the peak production (Qtmax), $(N_p/N_{R\ max})_{Q_{t\ max}}$ amwocriterion, and the formulae for obtaining the parameters of the growth curves were proposed and derived. Study of these growth curves indicatethat they are similar in characteristics; $(N_p/N_{R\ max})_{Q_{t\ max}}$ ranges from 0 to 0.36785, which belongs to situation of peak procuction Qtmax appears inthe early stage of oilfield development; Qt vs Np for them assumes dissymmetrical arched curves on the rectangular coordinates. Moreover, therepeated linear regression method passed the origin for obtaining the parameters of these curves is presented. A case from Shuanghe oilfieldshows that these growth curves have certain applicable values.

Key words: growth curve, trigonometric function, production index, prediction

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