Abstract: Donghe oilfield in Tarim basin is an ultradeep sandstone reservoir with well compacted rocks. The prediction in the early phase of production was that it would not produce sand. So, no sand control measure was made after putting it into production. However, with reservoir pressure drawdown and water-cut increase during the production, the sand production became more and more serious. Following analysis of the main affecting factors, this paper proposes two modification factors (λ1 and λ2)for conventional sanding prediction formula. Using the modified formula, the calculation results and prediction conclusions match the reservoir conditions very well. This method could be as a guide for other sandstone reservoirs in dynamic sanding predictions or sand controls.

Key words: Tarim basin, Donghe oilfield, dynamic sanding prediction, reservoir pressure, voidage factor, water cut