Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

Xinjiang Petroleum Geology ›› 2010, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 527-529.

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Prediction of Oilfield Production with Variable Coefficient Modified GM(1,1) Model

WANG Bo1, SONG Xin-min1, YANG Zhao-ping2, TANG Hou-jun3   

  1. 1. Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. Northwest Branch, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China;
    3. Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Tuha Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Hami, Xinjiang 839009, China
  • Received:2010-02-24 Published:2020-10-21

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Abstract: Prediction model for production decline is an important method for oil-gas reservoir engineering research. In this paper, a variable coefficient GM (1,1) model and parameter estimation method are developed on the basis of gray forecast model theory. The variable coefficient GM (1,1) model and original data transformation modify the gray model. Case study indicates that the improved gray forecast model is of higher accuracy for prediction of oilfield production.

Key words: oil field, coefficient, gray model, production, forecast, prediction

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