新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 1996, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 150-155+204.

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Logistic模型的推导及自回归方法

陈元千, 胡建国, 张栋杰   

  1. 中国石油天然气总公司石油勘探开发科学研究院 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:1995-12-07 出版日期:1996-06-01 发布日期:2020-07-27
  • 作者简介:陈元千 教授级高工 油藏工程

DERIVATION OF LOGISTIC MODEL AND ITS SELF-REGR ESSION METHOD

Chen Y uanqian, Hu Jianguo, Zhang Dongjie   

  1. Scientific Research Instrtute of Petroleum Exploration and Developmert. CNPC, Beijing 100083
  • Received:1995-12-07 Online:1996-06-01 Published:2020-07-27
  • About author:Chen Yuanqian, Professor of Engineering, Reservoir Engineering

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摘要： 基于文献[1]的增长类型的微分方程式,对实用的逻辑斯谛(logistic)模型进行了简单推导,得出了预测油气田产量、累积产量、可采储量、最高年产量及其发生时间的方法,并得出该模型的有效应用范围为,是在采出可采储量50％之后的递减阶段。同时,还提出了求解逻辑斯谛模型的自回归法。

关键词: 预测, 模型, 产量, 累积产量, 可采储量

Abstract: Based on the differentiating equation of growth type in Ref. 1, this article simply derived the factual Logistic mnodel. The methods for estimating production rate by fields, cumulative production rate, recoverable reserves. peak annual production rate and its year of occurrence were obtained. This model is simply applicable during tne period af-ter 50% recoverable reserves were produced. Furthermore, this article presented a self-re-gression method for solving the.Logistic model.

Key words: Estimate, Model, Production rate, Cumulative production rate, Recoverable reserves