新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 1998, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 161-164.

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Weng 旋回与Poisson 、Gamma 分布的对比与分析

张虎俊, 陈明强, 古发刚, 刘战军   

  1. 玉门石油管理局采油厂 甘肃玉门 735200
  • 收稿日期:1997-10-28 出版日期:1998-04-01 发布日期:2020-11-15
  • 作者简介:张虎俊：工程师 油田开发

CORRELATION AND ANALYSES OF WENG CYCLE AND POISSON, GAMMA DISTRIBUTION

Zhang Hujun, Chen Mingqiang, Gu Fagong, Liu Zhanjun   

  1. Oil Production Plant, Yumen Petroleum Administration Bureau, Yumen, Gansu 735200
  • Received:1997-10-28 Online:1998-04-01 Published:2020-11-15
  • About author:Zhang Hujun, Engineer, Oilfield Development

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摘要： 通过对Weng 旋回与Poisson、Gamma(亦记为Γ)分布模型的对比和分析表明, Weng旋回模型原式的自变量为特定的时间变量, 即其时间为实际发生时间的1/B.故模型原式在自变量从0~+∞积分, 其结果并非是真正的可采储量, 而是对应于特定时间的积分值, 这一数值等于可采储量的1/B;Weng 氏模型原式与Poisson分布尽管具有相似的表现形式,但却是两个完全不同的模型, 因为二者的自变量不具有同一数学意义;Weng旋回模型的本质符合连续型Gamma 随机分布的数学原理,以往对模型参数n规定取正整数的假设是不妥和多余的。在上述研究的基础上, 给出了Weng旋回模型的简明式和结构式, 使其上升到了一定的理论高度, 更加具有实际意义和Weng 氏特色, 同时给应用者带来了方便。

关键词: 模型, 分布, 产量, 可采储量, 预测

Abstract: The correlation and analyses of Weng cycle and Poisson, Gamma distribution model showed that independent variable of original formula in Weng cycle model is specified time one, that is the time is 1/B of real time.The integral value of original formula with 0~+∞ of independent variable is rather 1/B of recoverable reserves than real recoverable reserve.Althrough original formula in Weng model and Poisson distribution have similar form of expression, Weng cycle and Poisson distribution are two different models because of their different independent variables;Weng cycle model accorded with mathematical principle of continuous Gamma random distribution, in which hypothesis of model parametern being positive integer is improper.Based on above-mentional studies, this paper gave simple and clear structural formula of Weng cycle model.

Key words: Model, Distribution, Production, Recoverable reserve, Prediction