新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 2002, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 415-418.

• 油藏工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

油田开发时变结构预测模型的建立及应用

高文君1, 程行海2, 刘瑛1, 杨立恒1   

  1. 1.中国石油 吐哈油田分公司 勘探开发研究院,新疆 哈密 839009;
    2.中国石油 吐哈油田分公司 丘陵采油厂,新疆 鄯善 838201
  • 收稿日期:2002-03-01 出版日期:2002-10-01 发布日期:2020-08-11
  • 作者简介:高文君（1971-）,男,陕西乾县人,工程师,从事油田开发和油藏工程研究工作。联系电话：0902-2765387

Establishment and A pplication of Time V ariant Structural Forecast Model in the Oifield Development

GAO Wen-jun, CHENG Xing-hai, LIU Ying, YANG Li-heng   

  • Received:2002-03-01 Online:2002-10-01 Published:2020-08-11
  • About author:GAO Wen-jun (1971-), Male, Engineer, Oilfield Development and Reservoir Engineering, Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Tuha Oilfield Company, CNPC, Hami, Xinjiang 839009, China

PDF

170

摘要： 在油田开发规律研究的基础上,将预测模型中的待定系数确立为时变参数,建立了油田广义产量和两类常用水驱特征曲线的时变结构预测模型,并利用系统辨识理论中多层递阶预报方法进行参数估计,可大大提高模型的拟合精度和预报精度。经实际资料的应用,效果较好。

关键词: 油田开发, 预测, 模型, 时变结构, 参数

Abstract: Based on the oilfield development law study, the undetermined coefficient of forecast mode is regarded as time variant parameter. The time variant structural forecast model of oilfield generalized production and two common water drive characteristic curves are developed. And multilayer recursive forecast method of systematic recognition theory is used to estimate parameter, which can greatly improve the model match accuracy and forecast accuracy. The application shows that it has good effectiveness.

Key words: oilfield development, forecast, model, time variant structure, parameter

中图分类号: