新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 2007, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 609-611.

• 油藏工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律

沈楠1,2, 杜军社3, 王国先3, 富玉芳3, 邹民3, 乔跃华2, 蔡军3   

  1. 1.中国科学院 地质与地球物理研究所 北京 100029;
    2.中国石油 新疆油田分公司 彩南油田作业区, 新疆 阜康 831511;
    3.中国石油 新疆油田分公司 准东采油厂勘探开发研究所, 新疆 阜康 831511
  • 收稿日期:2006-11-06 修回日期:2007-01-16 出版日期:2007-10-01 发布日期:2020-08-03
  • 作者简介:沈楠(1967-), 男, 山东鱼台人, 高级工程师, 油藏工程,(Tel) 0994-3841776(E-mail) shen_han@peerochina.com.cn.

Using Normal Probability Model to Forecast Performance of Water Cut in Water flood Oilfield

SHEN Nan1,2, DU Jun-she2, WANG Guo-xian3, FU Yu-fang3, ZOU Min3, QIAO Yue-hua2, CAI Jun3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. Cainan Oilfield District, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Fukang, Xinjiang 831511, China;
    3. Institute of Exploration and Development, Zhundong Production Plant, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Fukang, Xinjiang 831511, China
  • Received:2006-11-06 Revised:2007-01-16 Online:2007-10-01 Published:2020-08-03

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摘要： 应用正态概率模型可以方便地确定水驱动态变化、描述水驱特征参数,这就使得预测油田含水率、采收率、评价开发措施变得比较简便而实用。油田开发实践表明,当油田进入中含水期后,不论是S型、凸型,还是凹型水驱特征曲线都可以应用正态概率模型进行预测。

关键词: 含水率, 采出程度, 预测, 正态概率, 模型

Abstract: Using normal probability model is more simple and efficient to determine performance and characteristic parameter of waterflood oilfield, so it is feasible and practicable to forecast water cut and oil recovery of waterfood oilfield and evaluate its development measures. The comparison and application show that the normal probability model can be applied to forecasting the performance of water cut when the oilfield enters into medium water cut stage for either S-type, convex-type or concave-type curves.

Key words: Water cut, recovery percent, prediction, normal probability, model

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