关键词: 产量, 预测, 模型, 方法

Abstract: To solve generalized Weng model is one of fundamental problems for petroleum production prediction. This paper traces back the origin of petroleum production prediction problem, reviews the initial linear iterative try and error method proposed firstly by Dr. Chen Yuan-qian, and presents a new method for solving this model. Taking Liaohe oilfield as an example, the solving process and results of two methods are compared, and the advantage and disadvantage of each method are analyzed. The case study shows that in the initial linear iterative try and error method, parameter b needs to be simulated with the software, selecting a judgment criteria to find the optimal value, and it is intuitive to select regression data; while in this new method, the optimal value of parameter b can be found directly by multiple regression, but it is less intuitive to select regression data. The two methods have individual advantage and disadvantage without any essential difference, which can complement each other in practice.

Key words: production rate, prediction, forecast, model, method