新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 2006, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 62-63.

• 油藏工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

广义S 增长曲线预测油田含水率

李祖友1, 朱义东1, 唐坚2, 杨白书3, 荣宁4   

  1. 1.西南石油学院石油工程学院,成都610500;
    2.中国石油吉林油田分公司,吉林松原131000;
    3.中国石油大庆油田有限责任公司,黑龙江大庆163000;
    4.中国石油塔里木油田分公司,新疆库尔勒841000
  • 收稿日期:2005-04-11 修回日期:2005-04-11 发布日期:2020-10-19
  • 作者简介:李祖友（ 1979-）,男,四川广安人,在读硕士研究生,油气田开发,（Tel）13568857371（E- mail）lzyswpi2004@163.net.

Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water -Cut of Oilfield

LI Zu-you1, ZHU Yi-dong1, TANG Jian2, YANG Bai-shu3, RONG Ning4   

  1. 1. Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
    2. Jilin Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Songyuan, Jilin 131000, China;
    3. Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd., PetroChina, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163000, China;
    4. Tarim Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Korla, Xinjiang 841000, China
  • Received:2005-04-11 Revised:2005-04-11 Published:2020-10-19

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摘要： 增长曲线的增长过程中,其图形表现为像一条压扁的S形曲线,在油田勘探、开发、生产过程中,很多实际生产数据也呈现出S形的增长趋势。通过对目前普遍采用的6种S 增长曲线指标量增长率变化特征分析,推导出能够代表这6种增长曲线的广义S增长模型及其增长曲线,并从此模型特征出发建立了油田含水率预测模型。采用试差法对模型进行求解。通过实例分析表明,提出的广义S 增长模型可以用来预测油田含水率,指导水驱油田的开发。

关键词: 增长曲线, 广义, 预测, 含水率

Abstract: The graph of growth curve in its growth process is normally characterized by an oblate shape like "S". A lot of field data got from oil exploration, exploitation and production also appear such a S-shape varied tendency. This paper presents the available six types of S-shape, analyzes their growth rate-varied patterns and deduces the generalized S-shape growth models and curves, followed by developing the oilfield water-cut forecast model the represents these six S-shape growth curves and making solutions with trial and error method. Case study indicates that the generalized S-shape growth model proposed in this paper can be applied to forecasting oilfield water-cut, being as a guide for development of water flood oilfields.

Key words: growth curve, generalization, forecast, water cut

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