Abstract: The accurate production forecast of oilfield plays an important role in making the modification of development plan and improving the efficiency of operation performance. The Gray predicting theory,accurate difference scheme and modified simulating parameter are applied to develop a model of oilfield production forecast. Because of nonlinear correlation between the simulating parameter and the error of prediction, the optimal value of the parameter is derived with new self-adaptive genetic algorithm. The case estimation shows that this algorithm is faster and more accurate features, and using modified Gray model may significantly improve the accuracy for production forecast.

Key words: oilfield, production forecast, model, gray model, simulation