Abstract: Based on the oilfield development law study, the undetermined coefficient of forecast mode is regarded as time variant parameter. The time variant structural forecast model of oilfield generalized production and two common water drive characteristic curves are developed. And multilayer recursive forecast method of systematic recognition theory is used to estimate parameter, which can greatly improve the model match accuracy and forecast accuracy. The application shows that it has good effectiveness.

Key words: oilfield development, forecast, model, time variant structure, parameter