Abstract: There are two percolation models developed for bottom-water reservoirs, i.e., the model for horizontal radial flow above perforation interval and the model for semispherical centripetal flow below perforation interval. Based on these models, implicit function for water-coning height at any time in any radius away from oil well axis before water breakthrough is derived, thus the time of bottom-water breakthrough and the section forms of water coning at different time can be determined. Also, this paper presents the comparison of computed and real results from two cases, with less than 5% of predicted error in water-breakthrough time.

Key words: bottom-water reservoir, water coning, simulation, water-breakthrough time, prediction