Abstract: Production prediction model and water drive type curves are two important methods in reservoir engineering analysis which are generally applied in oilfield development index prediction. But both the two methods have some limitations—production prediction model can’t be used to forecast water cut, and water drive type curve can’t be used to predict the changes of development indexes with time. Based on the feature analysis of Morgan-Mercer-Flodin(MMF) growth model, this paper derived the Hu-Chen model, simplified the process of parameter solving and established a combined solution model for water cut prediction in oilfields, which could overcome the deficiencies of the original two methods. The comparison of the actual development data with the results predicted by the model showed that the relatively high prediction accuracy of the model could meet the demand of production performance analysis, which could be a guidance for oilfield development plan making and adjustment.