›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1-1.doi: 10.7657/XJPG20160410

• 论文 •    

评Lee的油气资源量发现过程模型及预测模型的建立

陈元千,唐玮   

  1. (中国石油 勘探开发研究院,北京 100083)
  • 出版日期:2019-01-01 发布日期:1905-07-15

Review of Lee’s Discovery Process Model for Petroleum Resources and Establishment of Prediction Model

CHEN Yuanqian, TANG Wei   

  1. (Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China)
  • Online:2019-01-01 Published:1905-07-15

摘要: Lee的专著《Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources》第4章和第7章的发现过程模型是评价油气资源量的重要理论基础。Lee利用对数正态(Lognormal)分布、威布尔(Weibull)分布、伽马(Gamma)分布、逻辑斯谛(Logistic)分布和帕雷托(Pareto)分布的概率密度函数来描述一个含油气盆地单峰周期资源量的发现过程,但Lee引用的5种概率密度函数,除对数正态分布正确外,其余4种都是错误的,因而,必然影响到发现过程模型的正确性。此外,由于概率密度函数是0-1的无因次量,必须进行量纲的变换,才能建立可靠的预测模型, 但Lee在专著中没有提到关于概率密度函数的量纲变换。本文以对比的方式,指出了Lee引用的概率密度分布函数存在的错误,并经过量纲变换和推导,建立了评价油气资源量的预测模型。

Abstract: The discovery process model in Chapters 4 and 7 of Lee’s Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources is the important theoretical foundation to evaluate oil and gas resources. Lee uses probability density functions of Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution, Logistic distribution and Pareto distribution to describe the discovery process of unimodal cyclic resources in a petroliferous basin. But, it is found that except for Lognormal distribution, other 4 distributions are all wrong, which will inevitably influence the accuracy of the model. Additionally, dimension transformation must be performed to establish a reliable prediction model because the probability density function is a dimensionless quantity of 0~1. But Lee never mentions the dimension transformation of the probability density functions in his monograph. Based on comparison, the authors point out the mistakes of probability density functions introduced by Lee, and establishes a prediction model to evaluate petroleum resources through dimension transformation and derivation

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