关键词: 产量, 可采储量, 预测, 中国, 美国

Abstract: By using growth curves of 3W, 3Y1, b^(t) factor mould and b^tt^c factor mould, oil production, recoverable reserves and remaining recoverable reserves of China and USA were calculated and predicted. The comparison shows that the calculated oil production vs cumulative oil production using four growth curves with the actual data is fairly well-matched. The calculated results by using four growth curves for USA are more identical. The analysis shows that the growth curve of b^tt^c factor mould is slightly better other three growth curves. The calculated oil peak production of USA using the growth curve of b^tt^c factor mould occurred in 1975 with oil peak production of 5.0077×10⁸t/a; the actual oil peak production occurred in 1970, with oil peak production of 5.3088×10⁸t/a. We can find out that both calculated and actual results are relatively identical, showing that oil production of USA was sustained decline; while the calculated oil peak production of China occurred in 2002, with oil peak production of 1.6265×10⁸t/a; the actual oil peak production occurred in 1998,with oil peak production of 1.6052×10⁸t/a. We can find out that both calculated and actual results are also about the same, showing that in about 2000 the oil production of China turns from increase or steady to decline. The calculation shows that oil recoverable reserves of China is 79×10⁸t,remaining oil recoverable reserves of USA is 312×10⁸t, remaining oil recoverable reserves of USA in 1999 is 52×10⁸t.

Key words: production, recoverable reserves, prediction, China, USA