新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 2010, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 194-196.

• 应用技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

用组合模型预测聚合物驱产油量

邱海燕1a, 丁显峰1b, 胡晓云2, 刘平2   

  1. 1.西南石油大学 a.化学化工学院 ;b.研究生部 成都 610500;
    2.中国石油 新疆油田分公司 采油二厂,新疆 克拉玛依 834008
  • 收稿日期:2009-11-05 修回日期:2009-12-29 发布日期:2020-09-17
  • 作者简介:邱海燕(1979-),女,四川绵竹人,讲师,在读博士研究生,油气田开发,(Tel)0817-2886355(E-mail)windqq2002@163.com.

Application of Combination Model to Prediction of Oil Production by Polymer Flooding Process

QIU Hai-yan1a, DING Xian-feng1b, HU Xiao-yun2a, LIU Ping2b   

  1. 1. Southwest Petroleum University, a. School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, b. Graduate School, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
    2. No. 2 Production Plant, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Karamay, Xinjiang 834008
  • Received:2009-11-05 Revised:2009-12-29 Published:2020-09-17

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摘要： 聚合物驱产油量预测结果的可靠性直接关系到油田开发年度规划和中长期规划的部署,因此预测模型的选择尤为重要。在简要介绍组合预测模型的基础上,建立了基于Weibull 预测、HCZ 预测和广义翁氏预测3 种单项预测方法的最优加权法组合预测模型;以预测误差平方和最小为准则确定最优组合预测模型中的加权系数,实现产量预测模型的最优组合,并利用实际生产数据通过与Weibull 预测模型、HCZ 预测模型和广义翁氏模型的预测精度对比分析,验证了组合模型的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 克拉玛依油田, 组合模型, 聚合物驱, 产油量预测, 加权系数

Abstract: Predictive Results of oil production by polymer flooding process are directly related to annual planning and mid-long term planning deployment in the process of oil field development, so the selection of forecast model is particularly important. This paper briefly introduces the combination forecast model and develops an optimal combination model for oil production forecast based on Weibull, HCZ and generalized Weng's prediction models, in which the weighting coefficient is determined by the criterion of minimum square sum of predictive error. The precision of such a model is compared with those given by the three models by means of real production data, proving this model is effective and practicable.

Key words: Karamay oil field, combination, polymer flooding, oil production prediction, weighting coefficient

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