新疆石油地质

新疆石油地质 ›› 2003, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 356-359.

• 综述 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国石油探明储量变化特点与发展趋势

周总瑛1,2, 张抗1, 唐跃刚2   

  1. 1.中国石化 石油勘探开发科学研究院,北京 100083;
    2.中国矿业大学,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2002-09-05 发布日期:2021-01-13
  • 作者简介:周总瑛(1967-),男,福建萧田人,硕士,高级工程师,石油地质。联系电话:010-82312946

Analysis of the Change Characteristics and Development Trend of Proven Oil Reserves in China

ZHOU Zong-ying1,2, ZHANG Kang1, TANG Yao-gang2   

  1. 1. Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Sinopec, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2002-09-05 Published:2021-01-13

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摘要： 分析了中国近年来石油探明储量变化的特点,其主要表现为:较稳定、较高幅度地增长,但各地区存在明显的差异性;新增油田的储量规模变小和新增油田的储量丰度降低;剩余可采储量增长缓慢。根据中国历年石油探明储量的变化特点,选用了逻辑斯谛模型、经验趋势法、灰色系统模型3种方法,并结合国内其他预测值,综合分析了近中期中国石油探明储量的增长趋势。预计2001—2005年期间新增探明储量达35×108～38×108t,2006—2010年期间新增探明储量32×108～35×108t,石油勘探具有良好的发展潜力。

关键词: 中国, 石油, 探明储量, 预测, 发展趋势

Abstract: In recent years, China’s proven oil reserves show the varied characteristics which can be summarized as following: 1) growth with steadiness and high range, but there exist distinct differences; 2) reduction of both pool size and reserves abundance in the newly discovered oilfields, and 3) extremely slow growth of remained recoverable reserves. According to these characteristics, Logistic model, experience trend method and grey system model are selected, integrated with domestic various prediction results, comprehensive analysis of growth trend of proven oil reserves is made for the short-term and medium-term in China. It is estimated that new incremental proven reserves will reach 3.5~3.8 billion tons during the period from 2001 to 2005; 3.2~3.5 billion tons during the period from 2006 to 2010, showing a good exploration potential.

Key words: China, oil, proven reserves, prediction, method, trend

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