Abstract: After movable-gel profile control and flooding technology is carried out in the sandstone reservoirs at middle-high water cut stage, the changes of the water cut are quite different from those during waterflooding stage. Aiming at the problem of no analytical model for quantitative water cut prediction after displacement, the paper establishes a water cut prediction model for gel profile control and flooding. Based on the production performance data and general relative permeability formulas, a water cut prediction model for waterflooding is derived and the physical meaning of each parameter of the model is explained, then a watercut prediction model is established for movable gel profile control and flooding. The paper uses the volume-weighted iteration method to calculate the equivalent viscosity and residual resistance factor of the gel solution, characterizes the effects of oil yield increase and water cut decline during the gel profile control and flooding process and carries out sensitivity analysis on model parameters influencing water cut changes. The study shows that reservoir heterogeneity and injected pore volume of gel solution affect water cut decline range and funnel width, and the equivalent viscosity and residual resistance factor have the most significant impacts on water cut decline. A test area is selected from the western Menggulin sandstone reservoir of Erlian basin for model test, and the error of the predicted water cut is less than 2%, meeting the requirement of engineering, which proves the feasibility of the water cut prediction model for movable gel profile control and flooding.