Abstract: Based on daily output data of pre-fracturing oil well, adopting the grey topological prediction method, we established the GM(1,1)model group, and predicted the well's production performance when not fractured in the period of effective fracturing, hence one can evaluate the actual output increment of fracturing treatment. The method is particularly applicable to oil well, which show obvious output fluctuation before fracturing treatment. The method has been verified by field data,and is highly reliable,which can be used as an important basis for evaluation of fracturing result and take it as important basis for fracturing result evaluation.

Key words: grey system, prediction, fracturing, effect, evaluation